iGrain India - Ukraine, one of the world's top producers and exporters of sunflower oil, is facing a significant drop in sunflower production this year, with estimates suggesting a reduction to 10.8 million tons (108 lakh tons) compared to the previous year's output of 15 million tons (150 lakh tons).
This decline is attributed to several factors, including reduced sowing areas, adverse weather conditions such as drought and extreme heat, and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Despite being the leading producer of sunflower in the Black Sea region, Ukraine's crop yields have been severely affected.
The Ukraine Agri Business Association (UCAB) has indicated that the harsh weather conditions, especially the lack of rainfall, have had a substantial impact on the sunflower crop.
The sunflower harvesting process is still ongoing, and there could be some changes to the production estimates as the full scope of the harvest becomes clear.
At the same time, there is a discrepancy between different organizations' estimates. The National Vegetable Oil Producers Association (NAK) estimates production to be around 12.5 million tons (125 lakh tons), which is still lower than last year's total but higher than the figures provided by UCAB.
As of November 8, Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry reported 9.7 million tons of sunflowers harvested, with 95% of the area already processed.
Additionally, there have been claims of discrepancies between official data and actual production figures, with reports suggesting that farmers may have underreported their sunflower yields by up to 1.5 million tons. This could be a factor in the differences in production estimates.
Ukraine’s sunflower crushing and oil production capacity remains robust, but with lower crop yields, it could face challenges in meeting both domestic demand and export commitments, especially to countries like India, a major importer of Ukrainian sunflower oil.
This production decline may lead to higher global sunflower oil prices, impacting countries dependent on imports from Ukraine.