iGrain India - Canada's yellow pea business is facing significant challenges as it relies heavily on the export market, with about 90% of its annual pea production being shipped abroad.
The country's main export markets have traditionally been India and China, but deteriorating relations with both are creating uncertainty.
One of the key issues is with India, where the duty-free import of yellow peas is set to end on December 31. If this exemption is not extended, Canadian pea exporters could experience a severe impact, as India has been a major buyer.
At the same time, China, which has historically been a large consumer of Canadian peas, is increasingly turning to Russia for imports.
Just a few years ago, Canada controlled more than 90% of China's pea market, but that share has now dropped to less than 50%. This shift, coupled with potential lost access to India, would leave Canadian producers and exporters vulnerable.
In response to these challenges, Canada is closely monitoring India's decision on import duties. If India's market closes off, Canadian exporters would become even more reliant on China.
However, China's growing preference for Russian peas adds further pressure on Canada's position in this key market.
The situation has shifted dramatically since 2017 when India first imposed import duties on peas, and Canada's relative lack of competition in China provided some cushion. Today, the landscape is much more competitive, leaving Canada's pea business on a precarious path.