iGrain India - Brazil, the world's largest producer and exporter of soybeans, is expected to achieve a record production of 170 million tonnes of the crop during the 2024-2025 season. This marks a significant increase in global soybean availability.
Along with Brazil, Argentina is also expected to see a boost in production, reaching between 510-520 lakh tonnes. The soybean harvest in Brazil is anticipated to begin in mid-January 2025, further contributing to global supply.
The anticipated growth in Brazilian production is expected to impact trade dynamics, particularly with China, which is the world's largest importer of soybeans. Currently, about 70% of Brazil's soybean exports are directed to China.
However, the trade relationship between the United States and China may be affected by the policies of the incoming U.S. president, Donald Trump, who has indicated plans to impose higher tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada. If these tariffs are implemented, U.S.
soybean exports could face challenges, especially to China and Mexico, as these countries may increase their import duties on U.S. soybeans.
In contrast, Brazil stands to benefit from these changes, with an opportunity to expand its soybean exports to China, Mexico, and other global markets.
The increased Brazilian supply, combined with the potential reduction in U.S. exports, positions Brazil to meet the growing demand for soybeans in these regions, while also maintaining ample stock levels. This shift could reshape global soybean trade in the coming years.