iGrain India - The outlook for big cardamom in India appears cautiously optimistic, despite challenges posed by adverse weather and natural disasters affecting crop production.
The ongoing harvest phase, particularly the second or main phase, is yielding high-quality new stock, which is expected to stabilize prices in the short term.
While production may decline due to weather-related issues, the strong domestic demand driven by festivals and auspicious occasions, combined with an anticipated uptick in export demand (especially to Muslim countries during the December-January period), will likely help maintain strong market conditions.
In neighboring countries like Nepal and Bhutan, similar weather-related challenges have affected the black cardamom crop, which could reduce global supply and potentially support higher prices. In India, black cardamom is primarily produced in the northeastern states of Sikkim, Meghalaya, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh,
which have also faced adverse weather, including severe floods in Assam and Meghalaya. This further tightens supply and is likely to keep prices elevated, especially as imports from Nepal increase.
As of now, black cardamom prices in India’s wholesale markets are reported at around Rs 1650-1660 per kg for the Kainchi Cut variety, with auction prices ranging between Rs 1375 and Rs 1850 per kg. With limited previous stock and strong export demand,
the prices are expected to remain strong in the near future, though fluctuations will depend on the balance between domestic and export market dynamics.
In summary, despite challenges in production, strong demand in both domestic and export markets should support the price stability and market strength of black cardamom in the coming months.