iGrain India - The cotton production in India is expected to decrease by 4 lakh bales in the 2024-25 season compared to the previous season, according to recent reports.
This decline is attributed to a reduction of approximately 14 lakh hectares in the sowing area and crop damage from natural calamities in certain regions. The USDA’s latest report also reflects this expectation of lower production.
India’s cotton output is forecast to drop from 254 lakh bales in the 2023-24 season to 250 lakh bales in 2024-25. The USDA report, based on bales weighing 480 pounds (213 kg), estimates the total cotton availability in India will be around 366 lakh bales, including 93 lakh bales of outstanding stock, 250 lakh bales from domestic production, and 23 lakh bales of imports.
In terms of consumption, 260 lakh bales are expected to be used domestically, while 13 lakh bales are likely to be exported, with the remaining 93 lakh bales expected to remain as surplus stock by the end of the season.
In comparison, during the 2023-24 season, India had a starting stock of 108.20 lakh bales, produced 254 lakh bales, and imported 8.90 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption totaled 255 lakh bales, and exports amounted to 23.10 lakh bales, leaving a surplus stock of 93 lakh bales at the season's close.
The USDA’s surplus stock estimate has been questioned by India’s Cotton Association, which believes the figure is higher than expected.