iGrain India - The price of small cardamom is expected to rise significantly due to several factors impacting its production. Adverse weather conditions, natural disasters, and a fungal disease outbreak have led to a sharp decline in production from around 25,000 tonnes in 2023 to an expected 15,000-18,000 tonnes in 2024.
This drop in production, combined with strong demand and reduced stock availability, is pushing prices higher.
The average auction price of cardamom saw a significant increase, from Rs 1650 per kg in January 2024 to Rs 2950 per kg by December.
Given the supply constraints, the price could further rise to Rs 3300-3500 per kg by March-April 2025. The reduced availability of cardamom has led producers to hold back stock, limiting its arrival in major auction centers.
Additionally, the upcoming Ramadan period in Muslim-majority countries may increase demand, contributing to further price hikes.
Weak production in Guatemala, another major producer, is expected to add to the pressure on global supply, with export prices rising.
As Guatemala’s production for the 2024-25 season is expected to be about 17,500 tonnes (down by 45%), India's cardamom may become more competitive in the global market, supporting prices above Rs 2300 per kg.
Overall, the combination of lower production, higher demand, and limited global supply suggests that cardamom prices are likely to remain high in the coming months.