iGrain India - The global corn market is expected to see a rise in prices due to a decline in corn stocks in major exporting and importing countries. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) will release its final crop production estimate on January 10, 2025, which will provide updated information on the stock situation as of December 1, 2024.
Key points of this forecast include:
Declining Stocks in Exporting Countries: Corn stocks in major exporting nations, including the US, Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, and South Africa, are projected to drop to the lowest levels since 2006-07.Decreased Stocks in Importing Countries: Similarly, corn stocks in major importing countries, such as the European Union, Egypt, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, and many Southeast Asian nations, are likely to hit their lowest levels since the 2012-13 season.Impact of Geopolitical Tensions: The market's price behavior will be influenced by the dynamics between buyers and sellers. Analysts predict that buyers may be more active this year due to lower stocks, and any rise in geopolitical tensions could further push up the demand for corn due to concerns about food security.China's Role: While China holds a large stock of corn, its import behavior remains uncertain, which adds complexity to global corn trade.Stock Estimates: According to the USDA's December 2024 report, the surplus stock of maize in exporting countries, excluding the US, is expected to fall to 7.99 million tonnes at the end of the 2024-25 season, compared to 15.06 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 18.47 million tonnes in 2022-23. In major importing countries, stocks are also expected to be lower than the outstanding stock of 20.53 million tonnes in 2024-25.Given these factors, the overall market sentiment suggests that prices could rise as demand outpaces supply, particularly if geopolitical issues and food security concerns further intensify.
